That would probably not be enough for Trump to win. Check out:
1. Economist chart of the Democratic share of the 2 party vote by state if 2016 errors are replicated.
2. 538 table comparing pre-election Clinton polls with actual results by state and then the pre-election Biden polls and the simulated result with the same error baked in.
3. 538 electoral map based on the calculations in 2.
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