Saturday, October 31, 2020

What If the Polling Errors in 2020 Are as Large as in 2016 and in the Same Direction?

That would probably not be enough for Trump to win. Check out:
1. Economist chart of the Democratic share of the 2 party vote by state if 2016 errors are replicated.
2. 538 table comparing pre-election Clinton polls with actual results by state and then the pre-election Biden polls and the simulated result with the same error baked in.
3. 538 electoral map based on the calculations in 2.

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