Saturday, October 17, 2020

It's Fall and a Lad's or Lass' Mind Turns to Thoughts of.....Forecasts Of Course!

Getting tired of checking out the 538 and Economist models all the damn time? In your defense, the models are continuously updated so it's always possible they'll be something new (though usually there isn't). So why not relax with Election Forecasting Classic, the grand political science tradition of predicting election outcomes with a sparse set of variables, typically fairly far in advance of the election and not updated very often if at all. The good folks at the APSA popular political science magazine PS have rounded up a whole passel of academics that each have a model based on their favorite variables and are making their analyses available to all the honest workers and peasants of America. It's a beautiful thing.
Below, I reproduce the key summary tables of the results and provide a link to access the full range of articles on the models. Alan Abramowitz' model is there, previously flagged in these pages, as well as many others. And there is the impressively weird Helmut Norpoth model, based on primary results, which gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning and predicts he will gain 362 electoral votes (!) Seems kind of implausible. But if he's right......he'll look like a genius!
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