Tuesday, March 2, 2021

Progressives Should Relax about the $15 Minimum Wage and Concentrate on What's Most Important

There's been a lot of rending of progressive garments about the looming excision of the $15 minimum wage from the relief package, both due to the Senate Parliamentarian's ruling and the general realities of a Senate where Joe Manchin's and Kyrsten Sinema's votes cannot be dispensed with. But really, they should relax. This development was inevitable anyway. It's far, far more important to move the relief bill fast and get it into the economic bloodstream of the country, showing that Democrats can and will deliver big for the American people. From the Times:
"The demise of President Biden’s plan to raise the federal minimum wage as part of his economic stimulus plan has prompted anger among progressives on Capitol Hill and around the country, threatening to overshadow a moment of triumph for Democrats this week as they push through a nearly $2 trillion pandemic aid package.
The simmering tension is unlikely to derail the plan, which is packed with longtime Democratic priorities including enhanced federal jobless aid, direct payments to Americans, and hundreds of billions of dollars for states, cities and tribal governments suffering fiscal shortfalls. But the liberal angst over the measure, coming little more than a month after Mr. Biden took office, foreshadows larger fights to come over the rest of his agenda, and a difficult road ahead for Democrats in navigating the divide.
It also risks muddling what the White House and party leaders had hoped would be a clear and politically potent message on the stimulus measure, which Democrats are working feverishly to portray as a momentous and broadly popular accomplishment that Republicans should be scorned for opposing.
Instead, some of the loudest progressive voices in recent days have been focused on demanding that Mr. Biden and leading Democrats push harder to rescue the minimum wage increase proposal from a procedural thicket in the Senate by changing the chamber’s rules. Their pleas ignore the fact that the proposal does not have enough support even among Democrats to pass."
That's right; the filibuster will not be broken and/or Senate rules changed for the $15 minimum wage. Nor would there be any point in doing so.
Moreover, the next big thing after the relief bill will likely be another spending bill--the recovery/infrastructure bill--to be passed through reconciliation as well. And no, it will not include the $15 minimum wage either. But that's OK. That second bill could be a real doozy in terms of moving the economy and the country in a way that progressive Democrats should be ecstatic about. Greg Sargent:
"The New York Times reports that some Democrats are already thinking about how to move a far-reaching infrastructure repair agenda, if they can get the economic relief bill through the Senate and into law.
This coming debate may be uniquely positioned to expose Trumpism’s bankruptcy as it sinks into QAnon-ification, cultishness and mythologizing about the Lost Cause of the stolen election.
First, such rebuilding is exactly what Trumpism was supposed to do. Just after Trump’s 2016 victory, his adviser Stephen K. Bannon famously vowed a “trillion-dollar infrastructure plan” that would realign the working class behind populist nationalism, launching an “entirely new political movement.”
That never happened, largely because Trump mostly adopted conventional GOP plutocratic economics. Yet as the Times piece reports, proponents of a new infrastructure effort are now envisioning large government investments as a way to “help the economy run more efficiently, leading to stronger growth and faster wage gains for workers.”
Delivering successfully here would establish that it is progressive economics — not Trumpist nationalism — that offers the truly concrete approach to rebuilding the country in a way that lifts the fortunes of workers and promotes the common good."
So don't sweat it, $15 minimum wage fans. We'll get to it eventually--or as close as possible under current political constraints. But there's a lot of other stuff going on which is actually more important.

President Biden Wants You to Join Your Union!

Well, he didn't exactly say that but then again it's not clear FDR actually made such a statement either. But Biden, in his video message relating to a unionization vote at an Alabama Amazon warehouse made clear where his sympathies lie and warned Amazon not to try to manipulate the vote. That's a big deal by the standards for American presidents for a very long time.
We'll see if Biden keeps it up so the headline here really does seem the message to workers. If so, that could easily be one of the most consequential parts of Biden's Presidency. Right now, the private sector unionization rate is only 6.3 percent, so there's a very long way to go. But perhaps Biden's intervention is a harbinger, at long last, that a more favorable environment for union activity has arrived.
May be an image of 2 people, including Dipankar Samanta and text that says 'I WANT YOU To Join Your Union If I went to work in a Factory, the first thing Id do would be to join a union." Franklin D. Roosevelt'

Monday, March 1, 2021

I Believe I May Have Mentioned This Before....But Just Do Popular Stuff!

Perry Bacon Jr. at 538 points out that Democrats seem to have three general factions about how to move forward legislatively:
* Camp No. 1: We are in a Democratic and democratic emergency.
* Camp No. 2: Maybe there’s an emergency, maybe not; either way, just do popular stuff.
* Camp No. 3: We can and should work with Republicans.
I'm a camp #2 man myself. As you can see from the graphic below the $1.9 trillion covid-19 relief bill is a good start on that strategy! This bill will be passed through reconciliation. The Democrats also have an open path to passing a second large spending bill on recovery/build back better through reconciliation later this year.
After that....well, the filibuster will likely have to be dealt with. With all due respect to the camp #3 folks, the likelihood of finding 10 Republican votes in the Senate to do genuinely worthwhile legislation seems low. Not that it's not worth a good faith effort but just very unlikely to be successful.
So the path forward for Democratic priorities outside of the two big spending bills (which I hasten to say are hugely important) likely entails breaking the filibuster around a really popular piece of Democratic legislation. That needs to be carefully chosen, given the state of play in the Senate and the sensitivities of the political actors involved, but it seems an inevitable move forward at this point. It won't be easy but the time may have finally come.
No photo description available.

What American Foreign Policy Should Really Be Focused On

At The Liberal Patriot, John Halpin and Brian Katulis consider the latest Pew Research findings on foreign policy public opinion and wonder why elites are so clueless about Americans' most pressing concerns.
"Pew is out with another fantastic public opinion study examining the contours of American attitudes about foreign policy at the start of the Biden administration. The new study contains rich findings throughout. But what is striking to us is how the two issues that most divide Democrats and Republicans in terms of priorities—climate change and immigration, respectively—are the main focus of political discussions in elite circles these days rather than the issues that most unite people—protecting American jobs and protecting the homeland from terrorist attacks, along with steps to stop pandemics."
No photo description available.

Saturday, February 27, 2021

Is the Left the Prisoner of the Professional-Managerial Class?

That's a reasonable contention these days when the left is not only divorced from the working class, but doesn't even seem particularly interested in it. Instead left activists, now primarily drawn from the professional-managerial class (PMC), seem far more concerned with demonstrating their commitment to cutting-edge cultural battles than reaching the working class. If the working class doesn't "get it", it just shows how hopeless and reactionary they are.
That's kind of peculiar by standards of the historical left. One way to understand this development is by a class analysis of the PMC itself, a term that was popularized in the 1970's by Barbara and John :Ehrenreich. A short new book by Catherine Liu does this (available at a very low price from Amazon or even free if you rummage around on the internet). James Foley, in a useful review-essay on Brave New Europe, comments on and summarizes the book's argument as follows:
"Working-class associational life...reached a peak and collapsed, not just in party organisation and trade unionism, but also in religion, sport and culture. A working class (though changed) remains the social majority, but a “void”, as Peter Mair said, separates it from political and cultural representation.
Conversely, the traditional middle classes were transformed by the expansion of universities and white-collar occupations. This also reached a peak, somewhat later, when the over-production of cultural elites collided with the post-2008 breakdown of the capitalist system. Graduate wages fell to levels often indistinguishable from working class occupations. But economic convergence was matched by cultural and political divergence. While graduates entered the left and the unions in droves, their hunger for distinction entered with them. For this reason, universalist appeals to ‘the 99%’ fell flat: today’s leftism presents itself as an immense accumulation of subcultures, all seeking moral differentiation from a fallen cultural majority....
The great historical irony is that post-2008 left experiments, styling themselves against the establishment, would eventually reinforce the sociology of the Third Way. Perhaps the quintessential case, despite its early promise, was Labour’s recent lurch to the left. “Ideologically, Corbynism was a break from New Labour centrism,” notes Chris Bickerton, “but sociologically, it was more Blairite than Tony Blair.” Cynical though this assessment might sound, it is reasonably founded in fact. Blair’s clique had emphasised the “Southern question”, the need to break Labour from its “northern heartlands” (as Peter Mandelson is said to have sneered, who else would they vote for?) and speak to a younger, aspirational middle-class who had embraced market globalisation. By the time the Corbyn experiment had concluded – or, by the time the People’s Vote had colonised Momentum – this base of broadly liberal voters was effectively the party’s new heartland.
The result, not just in Britain, is a leftism where class dare not speak its name. Stimulated by a postmodern curriculum, graduates encourage – indeed, mandate – wrenching self-examination of whiteness, heteronormativity and patriarchy. Privilege, as they call it. But, on class, they have built paranoid, insulated walls against critique. When the question is even asked, some retort (correctly) that the “working class has changed”, implying (incorrectly) that they are the vanguard of a new social majority that passes through top tier universities. Others bristle at the tag PMC, the mere mention of which invites charges of “class reductionism”, now regarded as the greatest academic sin one can commit.
Within living memory, there were socialist cultures that defined themselves as working class, sometimes at the cost of silliness. At any activist get-together, there were Mockney accents, tracksuits and flat caps aplenty. Perhaps it was necessary to break from this live action role playing. But today, all of that has been replaced by an excruciating silence, punctuated by occasional explosions like 2016, which only reinforce a paranoid distrust of class analysis. Discussing the left’s class profile has thus become the proverbial minefield.
In that sense, Catherine Liu deliberately treads on just about every landmine. Virtue Hoarders, a book she styles as a “short introduction to the false consciousness of a class”, charts the decline of American intellectual life, the advance of PMC cultures, and an attendant hostility towards the working-class majority – all of it legitimised by radical rhetoric....They serve the (post)-neoliberal epoch by providing its moral vocabulary, built on the holy trinity of meritocracy, managed transgression and the centring of excluded voices.
The book’s central concept, “virtue hoarding”, offers a useful window into contemporary leftist dispositions. “The post-68 PMC elite,” Liu observes, believes itself to comprise not just our era’s best and brightest, but also “the most advanced people the earth has ever seen”. Yet while their elitism may be pronounced, it is also historically peculiar. Today’s leftists are not the first to style themselves as a vanguard of virtue. Traditional Leninism, to its critics, was guilty of adopting the lofty vantage point of the “true” proletarian, in contrast to the masses deluded by false consciousness. Much ink was spilled – often, ironically, by postmodern academics – condemning this outlook’s pretentiousness. Nonetheless, even at its worst, the Leninist stance implied a dynamic relationship to the majority: the goal was to “win” or “guide” the masses to the truth.
By contrast, today’s ideal-typical activists are radically different. Our vanguardists of virtue have no time for proselytising among workers – not even notionally. Instead, their goal is distinction, culturally, against a fallen majority, what Hillary Clinton called the “deplorables”. Virtue isn’t spread but hoarded. This explains the curiosity that, even where this group’s libertarian value system enjoys majority support, they continue to act as excluded moral minorities. Rather than stress common ground, which, ironically, has grown abundantly over the neoliberal epoch, they stress whatever makes them better than the masses....
Meanwhile, among peers, competitive virtue becomes a zero-sum game: I can have it only insofar as you are denied it. And, at the risk of reductionism, this directly mirrors the rationality of their class position: graduates specialising in symbolic manipulation – the hallmark of the PMC – compete for a shrinking number of jobs. Since their contributions are not measured in abstract numerical units, such as profit and loss for capitalists, or productivity for workers, their employability is defined by intangible status competition. Virtue here becomes a marketable commodity – and all the more when perceived as scarce."
Very provocative. Very interesting. I don't doubt that Liu has put her finger on one important factor explaining why today's left frequently seems so detached from political reality.

Friday, February 26, 2021

Could Biden Be the New Reagan?

Obama said he wanted to do this too, in the sense of supplanting the Reagan economic paradigm by a new paradigm that would do to Reaganomics what Reaganomics did to the New Deal. He didn't get there. Could Biden? Richard North Patterson thinks so and explains how/why in an excellent article on The Bulwark. I agree it's a live possibility and one that progressives should exert all their efforts to supporting. If we get there, so many, many other things become possible.
"On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned lawmakers that “the economic recovery remains uneven and far from complete, and the path ahead is highly uncertain”—while minimizing the risks of inflation. Moreover, our unemployment statistics ignore people who have stopped looking for work, as many Americans rendered jobless by the pandemic have; if they are included in the total, the unemployment rate rises to a dispiriting 10 percent or higher.
Given all this, Biden refuses to cut his plan. To circumvent GOP opposition, he is using the budget reconciliation process which requires a mere majority in the Senate—meaning every Democrat plus Vice President Kamala Harris.....
Most likely, Biden will sign his proposal into law by mid-March—a major legislative victory which sets the template for his presidency.
But this is a mere down payment on his ultimate ambition: supplanting Reagan’s paradigm with his own.
His team envisions spending up to $3 trillion on a program which, as spokeswoman Jen Psaki described it, “will make historic investments in infrastructure—in the auto industry, in transit, in the power sector—creating millions of good union jobs [while] addressing the climate crisis head on.” His goal evokes the New Deal: creating a more resilient and inclusive economy through federal intervention financed by higher taxes on the wealthy.
Such a sweeping agenda will alienate Republicans and unnerve moderate Democrats. But, among other things, it is aimed at a problem which upended bipartisan support for free trade, and provoked Trump’s ill-considered tariff wars: the loss of American jobs through globalization—including to China.
In a penetrating article for the New York Times, Noam Scheiber describes its genesis: Biden’s desire to create stable jobs which would not require blue-collar workers to relocate their families or undertake extensive retraining. One focus is government investment in electric vehicles whose components could be manufactured in America—providing employment, addressing the climate crisis, and strengthening green energy innovation.
Such “industrial policy”—government intervention to fortify selected industries—has long been debated by economists and derided by conservatives. One effort during the Obama years, the failed solar panel company Solyndra, became a notorious example of federal fecklessness.
But, Scheiber notes, recent studies of governmental support for Chinese industries suggests enduring successes. If our archrival can strengthen its domestic manufacturers at our expense, the argument goes, why can’t we?
Between 2001 and 2007, Scheiber writes, America lost 3 million manufacturing jobs—most likely the result of our free trade policies toward China. Some prominent Republicans—Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, and Mitt Romney—have become particularly vocal about China’s predatory practices and economic sway. Even Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, for years a dedicated free trader, acknowledges the need to protect American workers from the downside of globalism.
This may create some space for bipartisan agreement. The potential for job creation underwritten by government is considerable: making electric parts; building or upgrading manufacturing facilities; creating and installing chargers. Economic nationalism is no longer brain-dead protectionism, but a potential strategy for spreading prosperity.
Certainly, it’s past time to rebuild our infrastructure, strengthen our broadband capacity, and protect our energy grid from calamity. To do otherwise means abandoning a first world economy.
No doubt Biden won’t get all he wants; likely he will have to advance his goals through piecemeal legislation, or through the budget reconciliation process, which carries other risks. But in challenging times, average Americans are far more concerned with their families and their futures than the nostrums of limited government."

Thursday, February 25, 2021

The Democratic Road Forward on Immigration

In my latest for The Liberal Patriot, I consider the Democrats' dead in the water immigration bill and the various problems it indicates about the Democrats' approach to immigration writ large.
"The Democrats have put forward a very ambitious immigration bill. Ambitious, but without the remotest chance of passing. Republicans will not sign on to a bill that essentially does nothing to address their concerns about border security, so they will filibuster the bill in the Senate. And Democrats are not going to try to break the filibuster for this bill. Therefore it will not pass.
The timing is also peculiar. The country is still reeling from the twin covid and economic crises, which will take some time to resolve even if the Democrats are successful with their related legislative efforts and mass vaccination drive. Is this really the right time to pursue legislation that could drive increased border crossings, thereby melding border security with health security concerns?...
Democrats moving forward have to accept the reality of American public opinion and politics that border security is a huge issue that cannot be elided in any attempt to reform the immigration system."
Read the rest at The Liberal Patriot. And subscribe!