Thursday, October 8, 2020

Biden Odds Improve

No surprise right? But it's still impressive.

* Right now, 538 gives Biden an 84 percent chance of winning the electoral vote and the Economist has it at 92 percent.
* The 538 national polling lead for Biden is almost 10 points. Ditto the New York Times.
* 538 state leads in relevant states for Biden are: MI, around 8 points; PA and WI, 7; FL and AZ, around 4; NC, almost 3; and OH, GA and IA, all around 1.
* Even the NYT's "what if the polls today are just as wrong and in the same direction as at the end of the 2016 campaign"--an extremely conservative and methodologically suspect way of treating the current data--has Biden with MI, PA, WI, AZ and FL.
Now, back to your regularly-scheduled panic about the election, which will be only enhanced when the race tightens up a bit, which is likely.

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