Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Biden by 7 in Georgia!?!

Well, that's what the new Quinnipiac poll says though it's almost certainly a bit of an outlier. But it is indicative of how competitive Georgia has become--now forecast as a dead heat by 538.

How is this happening? Three reasons in the Quinnipiac universe
1. Huge swing by white college; from -28 Democratic in 2016 (States of Change data) to +1 in this poll.
2. Somewhat smaller but still very substantial pro-Democratic swing among white noncollege, from -65 in 2016 to -41 in this poll; accounting for the larger size of the white noncollege group, this shift has at least the impact of the white college swing.
3. Black support that now appear to be running ahead of Clinton in terms of margin.
There was also a new high quality poll (NYT/Sienna) released today of North Carolina Do we see the same patterns there? Biden is up 4 and here are the same factors in the NYT/Sienna NC universe:
1. Modest swing among white college, from -1 Democratic in 2016 to +3 in this poll.
2. Big swing among white noncollege from -50 Democratic in 2016 to -26 in this poll; again the white noncollege group is substantially is substantially larger so this magnifies the effect of this shift relative to white college.
3. Black support also leading Clinton '16 in terms of margin.
Conclusion: white noncollege swings in the south appear to be more important than people have been giving them credit for. At minimum, they're a very important part of the story of Biden's competitiveness and potential victory in these states. Think of it as a three legged stool in these states: white college swing + white noncollege swing + strong black performance = potential Democratic victory. Take away any one leg and......

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