Thursday, October 1, 2020

The Expanding Electoral Map (2): Are Georgia and Texas Next?

Sabato's Crystal Ball is out with their latest electoral college ratings and they're quite similar to those of Cook Political Report, which I posted about yesterday. In particular:
"With a stable national lead and a bevy of polling showing him running significantly better with northern white voters than Hillary Clinton performed four years ago, Joe Biden appears to be turning back the clock a bit on the United States’ political transformation.
Namely, after Clinton hemorrhaged white voters in northern small town and rural areas in 2016, Biden appears to be bringing some of those voters back into the Democratic fold while also improving on Clinton’s margins with white suburbanites. If this pattern holds in the actual results, it could pay major dividends for Biden in the Great Lakes region, where American presidential elections are so often won and lost and where the electorates in the competitive states are whiter than the nation as a whole.
We have several Electoral College changes this week, all in this region. We are moving Minnesota from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. We are also moving its neighbor, Wisconsin — the decisive state in the 2016 presidential election — from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. And, finally, we’re moving Iowa and Ohio, both of which voted for Donald Trump by margins approaching double digits in 2016, from Leans Republican to Toss-up.
These changes push Biden over the 270 electoral vote mark in our ratings."
They go on to add:
"We may also be compelled to move Texas and especially Georgia to Toss-up sooner rather than later. At the very least, these states are consistently closer in polls than 2016’s decisive trio of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin."
Keep your eye on this one.
Image may contain: text that says 'State Table 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College rating change Old Rating lowa New Rating Leans Republican Toss-up Minnesota Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Ohio Leans Republican Wisconsin Toss-up Toss-up Leans Democratic'

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