Sunday, September 6, 2020

Wisconsin Math Lesson

The new CBS poll has Biden up in Wisconsin by 6. Why is this?

white college voters: Biden +13
white noncollege voters: Biden -10

Biden today relative to Clinton 2016:

white college voters: +1
white noncollege voters: +8

We project that white noncollege voters will be 55 percent of all WI voters in 2020, compared to 34 percent for white college voters.

Conclusion: Biden's improved performance among white noncollege voters is primarily--overwhelmingly--responsible for his current lead in the state.

As a final thought, look at the table below on WI voters' reaction to a question on whether protesters in US cities are trying to act peacefully. The potential problem is easy to see.

https://www.cbsnews.com/…/biden-trump-wisconsin-opinion-po…/

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