Thursday, September 24, 2020

Election Check-In: 538 and Economist Data

538 probability Biden victory: 77 percent

Economist probability Biden victory: 85 percent

538 probability Dem Senate: 62 percent

Economist probability Dem Senate: 67 percent
States Democrats favored to win (538): MI (currently +7 points in poll average), WI (+7), PA (+5), AZ (+4), FL (+2), NC (+1), OH (+1)
States Democrats favored to win (Economist): all as above except OH
States that are close but where Biden is not currently ahead (538): GA (-1), IA (-1), TX (-2)
Decent data for Team Blue I'd have to say.

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