Sunday, September 20, 2020

Is the Latino Vote Firming Up for Biden?

There's been a spate of articles recently talking about Biden's "Latino voter problem". .And I certainly don't mean to downplay that it's a legitimate concern. Still there are signs in the most recent polling that Biden's Latino support may be firming up.

For example, looking at the just-released NBC/Wall Street Journal poll (+8 Biden overall), which included a Hispanic voter oversample. This high quality poll has:

Biden +36 among Hispanics.

That compares to the States of Change estimate for the 2016 election:

Clinton +37 among Hispanics

It's also worth noting that this poll had Biden at +85 among black voters, which compares favorably to Clinton's +79 among this demographic in 2016.

CBS also released a couple of polls in FL and TX, two Latino-heavy states. In Florida, they found:

Biden +20 among Hispanics

That compares to the States of Change estimate for FL in the 2016 election:

Clinton +15 among Hispanics

Similarly, in TX, Biden leads by 31 points among Hispanics compared to Clinton's 29 point lead among that demographic in the state in 2016.

Again, if you averaged Hispanic samples nationally and in states like FL in the last several months the picture would not be as positive for Biden. But I would not be surprised if going forward he continues to show support among Latinos that is more like this poll and like 2016.

https://www.cbsnews.com/…/trump-biden-opinion-poll-florida…/

https://www.nbcnews.com/…/biden-holds-sizable-lead-over-tru…

https://www.cnn.com/…/poli…/biden-hispanic-voters/index.html

https://www.theatlantic.com/…/does-joe-biden-have-l…/616394/

THEATLANTIC.COM
The Democratic nominee has a Latino-voter problem.

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