Monday, September 14, 2020

Biden's Latino Problem?

A number of articles lately have commented on Biden's less than stellar polling performance among Latino voters. So far, his margins nationally among this demographic appear to lag behind Clinton's election performance among this group in 2016.

Of course, there's still plenty of time for the Latino vote to firm up behind Biden so it's at least similar to Clinton's support. But the greater worry here would have to be not the national figures but Hispanic support in key swing states. This means Arizona, Florida and Nevada.

Of the three, FL seems like the biggest problem. Recent polling data from AZ and NV look fairly strong on the Latino vote. The recent CBS poll of AZ had Biden's margin at +35 among these voters and Equis Research recently released a poll just of AZ Hispanics that had Biden's margin at +33. These are very similar to Clinton's 2016 margin in the state according to States of Changer data.

In NV, Equis also has a recent poll of Hispanics that has Biden's margin at +36, actually better than Clinton's low '20s margin in 2016.

Florida though has had some alarming findings, like the recent Marist poll that had Trump ahead by 4 points among Hispanics, similar to a slight Trump advantage in an earlier Quinnipiac poll. But the recent St. Pete poll had Biden's margin at +12 and Equis' late August poll of FL Hispanics had Biden's margin at +16. These are both very similar to Clinton's 2016 margin of +15 among FL Latinos.

So I worry most about FL. The Bden campaign probably needs more Hispanic outreach in general and that would appear to the place to concentrate it.

Latino leaders say Biden’s outreach falls short and he is risking his chance to win Florida. A Biden visit to Miami on Tuesday — and a cash infusion from Mike Bloomberg — reflect a scramble to catch up.

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