Monday, September 21, 2020

About Those Shy Trump Voters...

This keeps on coming up. But so far analysts have found precious little evidence that such shy Trump voters--those unlikely to tell an interviewer they support Trump and thus skewing the polls--exist in appreciable numbers. Now here's nice little study by Morning Consult that should put this one to rest--but probably won't because Democrats and paranoid and Republicans want to believe it.

"Despite trailing in most national public opinion polls, President Donald Trump regularly refers to a “silent majority” of Americans who he expects to vote for him on Election Day. But how many voters are reluctant to publicly share their opinion about the president?

Building on our 2015 and 2016 research, Morning Consult recently conducted a study of more than 2,400 likely voters to determine if the “shy Trump” voter phenomenon is affecting polling in the 2020 election. The study also examined whether social desirability bias is at play on a range of topics that have been particularly prevalent this year.

To conduct the study, all survey respondents answered a set of demographic questions online and then were randomly assigned to answer a brief, identical set of questions about politics and society either online or via a live telephone interview. By comparing these live telephone interviews with online responses, we were able to identify where social desirability bias was in effect.

There was clear evidence that voters are hesitant to express their opinions on discrimination, protests and personal finances during a live telephone interview."…

Image may contain: text that says 'If the 2020 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote? Online Joe Biden Donald Trump Phone 55% 45% M MORNING CONSULT 56% Source: Morning Consult 44% Study conducted Sept 10-14 2020, among 1,698 respondents online and 1244 espondents by live telephone,'

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