Thursday, September 3, 2020

Pennsylvania and Florida

Two new Quinnipiac polls, two pretty consequential states--PA is the tipping point state in 538's analysis and FL is the state that Trump can't afford to lose. Some observations.
1. These are of likely voters not registered so (perhaps) provides more meaningful results.
2. Biden margin of +8 in PA with 52 percent of the vote. Very strong result for Biden. On top of stellar support for Biden among white college graduates, Trump's support among white noncollege voters is about half of what it was in the 2016 election when he carried the state. No way Trump can win in the state with that much erosion in his best demographic.
3. Biden margin of +3 in FL with 48 percent of the vote Not so good result for Biden, at least compared to earlier when his margins were stronger.
4. But the crosstabs have some encouraging news. Biden carries white college voters (Clinton lost them) and Trump's margin among white noncollege is 10 points lower than in 2016.
5. And some discouraging news: Biden's black support in the state is solid but he is -2 among Hispanics which would be quite a falloff from Clinton's +20 Hispanic margin in the state
QU Poll Release Detail
POLL.QU.EDU
QU Poll Release Detail
Swing State Poll: Biden Leads Trump In Pennsylvania Among Likely Voters, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Presidential Race Is Too Close To Call In Florida

 

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