Friday, September 11, 2020

White Noncollege Voters to Pew: What Are We--Chopped Liver?

White Noncollege Voters to Pew: What Are We--Chopped Liver?

Pew has put out a fairly interesting report comparing 2018 voters to 2016 voters and assessing where Democrats made gains in 2018. It"s pretty good though based only on (validated voter) data from their American Trends Panel, about which I have some doubts. Also, to be honest, Catalist did a lot of this analysis quite awhile go and their data is probably better.

But this graphic below is what really caught my eye. It was in a section of the report titled: "Democrats made modest gains in 2018 among non-college White voters". Modest? That 11 point margin gain among a group of voters who were over 40 percent of voters in 2018 (and will likely be in 2020) is YUGE! I bring this up because I think it's indicative of continuing conventional underestimation of the importance of the white noncollege vote to the Democrats. Going from more negative to less negative counts just as much as going from less positive to more positive (especially if if's a very large voter group)! I can't understand why this seemingly simple idea is so hard for many people to grasp....

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