Saturday, September 26, 2020

Pennsylvania: Ground Zero of the 2020 Campaign

Pennsylvania is widely believed to be the "tipping point" state of the 2020 election, including by the Trump campaign apparently. Right now, the 538 rolling average has Biden ahead by around 5 in the state, pushing 50 percent support, and their model gives him a 3 in 4 chance of taking the state. The latest high quality poll in PA (Fox, Biden +7) shows Trump's difficulties and Biden's potential winning formula in the state.
* Biden's 8 point margin among white college graduates is running slightly ahead of Clinton's 2016 support.
* Biden's 17 point deficit among white noncollege voters is 15 points less than Clinton's in 2016.
* Biden's 74 point advantage among nonwhites (who are dominated by black voters) is essentially identical with Clinton's margin in 2016.
These data make clear the contours of Trump's challenge in the states. No wonder he's spending so much time there.

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