Tuesday, July 7, 2020

Will We Need Our Brooms After the 2020 Election?

We just might. Three political scientists have published an early forecast for the 2020 Presidential, Senate and House elections. Their forecast uses no trial heat data and just a small set of variables--Presidential approval, economic growth, type of election, seat exposure--to make their predictions. They see Democrats (probably) running the table. I advise you to remain nervous, but what this exercise does show is how the bad the basic fundamentals of this election are for Trump and the GOP.
The forecasts:
House: "The model predicts that the Republicans will lose 14 seats in the House, a number that would solidify the Democrats’ majority in the 117th Congress."
Senate: "For the Senate, the model predicts that the Republicans will lose seven seats."
President: "[I]f the economy continues its downward trajectory and the president’s approval rating remains static, our model predicts that Trump will receive only 24 percent of the electoral college vote."
Low presidential-approval ratings and the covid-19 recession are key factors to watch.

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