Sunday, July 26, 2020

Florida and the Latino Vote

CNN dropped several state polls over the weekend--AZ, FL and MI--with Biden way ahead in MI and solidly ahead in both FL and AZ. In fact, with the latest Florida polling, 538 now has Biden's lead at 7.1 points in the state, which is the same lead they give Biden in WI and actually a bit larger than his PA lead (6.7). That's really quite amazing.

I was interested to look at the Latino crosstabs in FL. In 2016, States of Change data had Clinton carrying Latinos by 19 points in the state. In the new CNN poll, that's exactly Biden's current lead among FL Latinos. (The latest Quinnipiac FL poll actually has his lead among Latinos a bit higher at 25 points). This is consistent with other polls I've been tracking, where Biden's lead among Latinos is approaching 2016 levels. Sure, the campaign would like bigger leads but I think the trend is good and is bolstering Biden's performance in states like FL.

Image may contain: text that says 'Who's ahead in Florida? An updating vrag 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll's quality sample size and recency JULY26 EADER Biden Biden 2% MAR. 2020 Trump43.1% APRIL MAY JUNE JULY'

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