Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Trump's Biggest Problem

As I have argued, the make-or-break constituency for Trump is the white working class; if they don't go his way, he's toast. Tim Alberta agrees and has a very interesting reported piece from Scranton, PA suggesting the deep trouble Trump is in. Well worth reading. The views of some of the people Alberta talks to will no doubt offend the tender sensibilities of some on the left, but as far as I'm concerned I welcome them to the popular front against Trumpism.

"The bottom line...is that for as well as Trump performed with these voters in 2016, he needs to do even better with them in 2020. He needs to convert more blue-collar Democrats. He needs to turn out more unaffiliated nonpartisans. The question is: Can he?...

Here were two prime targets for the president’s reelection [Kathy and Butch]: one voter he stole from Democrats in 2016, and one voter who preferred him but didn’t turn out. Trump needs both of these voters to break his way in 2020; instead, Kathy is going back into the Democratic fold, and Butch is staying home again...

[H]earing from these voters sure made me wonder whether Trump has any path to reelection. We already knew he’s bleeding support among white suburbanites; if he’s losing any sort of ground with the white working class, it’s difficult to see how he carries a state like Pennsylvania, or Michigan, or Wisconsin—the three battlegrounds that put him in the White House."

There you have it. Losing these voters is the death knell for Trump. Smart Democrats want to keep these voters right where they are. Please notice how sensitive they are on law and order issues. No unforced errors. Let's not screw this one up.

To win, the president needs to capture untapped support from the blue-collar base. In Scranton, he’s not getting the job done.

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