Sunday, July 5, 2020

Florida, Florida, Florida

A good article in Politico summarizes the evolving squeeze on a potential Trump electoral college majority. The article covers a fair amount of ground but it zeroes in, rightly, on Florida as perhaps the most serious crisis point for the Trump campaign:
"Biden’s campaign is zeroing in on the one swing state Trump can’t afford to lose: his newly adopted home state of Florida. The Trump campaign placed a massive $32 million fall ad buy this week. Other media buys by the Trump campaign have underscored Biden’s reason to go after Panhandle voters: The campaign last month spent $205,000 in the Pensacola television market, which shares viewers with Mobile, Ala. — conservative bastions where Republican campaigns seldom feel the need to get on air five months before Election Day.
“Right from the get-go we’re establishing a presence in the Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville markets,” the memo stated, promising a “strong presence in the Panhandle to get in front of white working-class voters who moved from Obama in ’12 to Trump in ’16.”
In a sign of Trump’s Florida struggles, the president on Thursday brought back his former Florida campaign fixer, Susie Wiles, who had been chased out by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for unknown reasons in September. At the time of her ouster, a top Trump adviser predicted to POLITICO she would return if Trump found himself in trouble."
Right now, Biden is running 6 points ahead of Trump in FL according to the 538 average. The recent NYT/Sienna poll (rated A+ by 538) had exactly that margin for Biden in FL. It's interesting to compare how Biden is doing compared to Clinton's 2016 performance, as estimated by the States of Change data.
By age:
18-29 +29 Clinton, +39 Biden
30-44 +17 Clinton, +21 Biden
45-64 -7 Clinton, -11 Biden
65+ -20 Clinton, -8 Biden
By race:
white -22 Clinton, -16 Biden
black +78 Clinton, +80 Biden
Hispanic =20 Clinton, +23 Biden
Solid!

POLITICO.COM
Gone are the days of forecasting a landslide victory. The president’s team is looking not for where Trump can win more, but how he can lose less.

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