Thursday, September 13, 2018

Yet More House Forecasting Models!

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball just released a couple more academic House forecasting models. I'll spare you the grisly methodological details, but both models have the Democrats picking up 44 seats. Not bad, not bad at all.
I noticed something looking across the all the various Crystal Ball models and thinking about some other recent models/estimates of seat gain for the Democrats. Here's what I noticed:
average gain across all Crystal Ball academic models: 36 seats
538 model simulation average gain: 39 seats
average out party gain with unpopular president: 37 seats
Interesting convergence......
On Tuesday, Nov. 6, about 90 million American voters (around 40% of the voting-eligible population, give or take) will elect all 435 members of the U.S. House…

1 comment:

  1. One of the things that amazes me, and I think most people who are attracted to math, is the mysterious way that different parts of math come together in unexpected ways. I tried to explain this to someone once using a literary analogy..."It is as if you we...
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