Wednesday, September 12, 2018

House Update: Looking Better and Better!

The 538 model now gives the Democrats an 83 percent (!) chance of taking the House, with an average seat gain of 39 seats (!!). Their rolling average on the House generic ballot has the Dems up by over 9 points.
Two recent polls by Quinnipiac and NPR/Marist have the Democrats up by 14 and 12 points, respectively in the generic House ballot. Fascinatingly, the Quinnipiac poll has the Democrats only losing white voters by 3 points, while the NPR/Marist poll has the Democrats actually carrying whites by 3 points. These are figures that should send a cold chill down the spines of GOP politicians. It's starting to look like white voters, in particular white noncollege voters, are not going to be enough to bail the Republicans out this time.

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