Saturday, September 15, 2018

House Update: Steady As She Goes

Not a lot new to report here. But a couple of interesting items.
* The latest CNN poll (+10 D on the generic) confirms a pattern I've seen a lot lately. The Democrats' lead among white college graduates is quite similar in magnitude to the Republicans' lead among white noncollege voters. The result is close to an even split among white voters overall. That's potentially catastrophic for the GOP.
* Harry Enten on the CNN site has an interesting piece examining the slight disjuncture between results implied by district-level House polls and overall generic results and various
"fundamental" indicators. Both imply the Democrats will take the House but the former implies smaller gains than the latter. Enten notes that the winning party on the overall popular vote tends to overperform their average on district-level polls, so there may be considerable upside for the Democrats relative to their district-level poll results.
Standard disclaimer: (a) None of this means the Democrats are certain to take the House. They aren't. (b) None of this means the Democrats can relax and not worry about voter mobilization. They can't.


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