Friday, September 28, 2018

Senate Forecast Update: Democratic Takeover Quite Possible, But Not Likely

Not a lot of constantly-updated Senate models out there but here are the Democratic takeover probabilities for the two I know of:
538 = 32 percent
David Byler/Weekly Standard = 34 percent
A one-in-three chance ain't bad considering the map the Democrats face this cycle.
Here are the Democratic win probabilities (538) for the individual key races:
West Virginia: 87
Montana: 86
Indiana: 76
Arizona: 69
Missouri: 62
Florida: 62
North Dakota: 58
Nevada: 54
Tennessee: 41
Texas: 31
So Democrats are favored in each of the individual races where an incumbent is defending a seat in a red state plus they are favored in two seats held by Republicans. Unfortunately, this doesn't add up better than 50-50 chance of taking the Senate since there are so many ways the Democrats can lose one or two of their red state seats. These after all are just probabilities and the same probabilities that say the Democrats are favored in some of these states also say the Republicans have quite a decent chance of prevailing. Add it all up and Republicans still have the upper hand.
Bonus: Nate Silver explains why the Democrats have a serious chance to win in Texas, despite the conservatism of the state.
About this website
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM
When building a statistical model, you ideally want to find yourself surprised by the data some of the time — just not too often. If you never come up with a r…

3 comments:

  1. I am going to say that you did great work and this is an awesome blog. I enjoyed reading your articles. This is truly a great read for me. I have bookmarked it and I am looking forward to reading new articles on the same matter.friv jogos online
    jogos online 2019
    friv jogos 4 school online

    ReplyDelete
  2. I tried anyway. Heaven knows why. Maybe just to see if I could or maybe because I was tired of working for the man hating my job and staying in debt. The first few months I just kind of half assed it. Like I said, I was mainly doing it for me. As I started to earn an income, make connections, helping people and getting results of my own...I really realized the potential.
    kizi 2 player racing games
    online game for kids
    friv free online Games 2019

    ReplyDelete
  3. Given that Ben was only 39 when he wrote this letter, he seems to have already amassed considerable mistress experience, getting an early start by fathering a son out of wedlock when he was 24. His presumably-long-suffering wife raised the child in her own home.
    Jogo live
    jogo 360
    io games net

    ReplyDelete