Friday, September 28, 2018

Senate Forecast Update: Democratic Takeover Quite Possible, But Not Likely

Not a lot of constantly-updated Senate models out there but here are the Democratic takeover probabilities for the two I know of:
538 = 32 percent
David Byler/Weekly Standard = 34 percent
A one-in-three chance ain't bad considering the map the Democrats face this cycle.
Here are the Democratic win probabilities (538) for the individual key races:
West Virginia: 87
Montana: 86
Indiana: 76
Arizona: 69
Missouri: 62
Florida: 62
North Dakota: 58
Nevada: 54
Tennessee: 41
Texas: 31
So Democrats are favored in each of the individual races where an incumbent is defending a seat in a red state plus they are favored in two seats held by Republicans. Unfortunately, this doesn't add up better than 50-50 chance of taking the Senate since there are so many ways the Democrats can lose one or two of their red state seats. These after all are just probabilities and the same probabilities that say the Democrats are favored in some of these states also say the Republicans have quite a decent chance of prevailing. Add it all up and Republicans still have the upper hand.
Bonus: Nate Silver explains why the Democrats have a serious chance to win in Texas, despite the conservatism of the state.
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