Sunday, September 23, 2018

House Forecasting Check-In

A little more than six weeks 'til election day. Time for a little check-in on the various House forecasting models (note: this is just the real-time updated models, not the various academic models--see Sabato's Crystal Ball for those).
538:
probability Democrats take House: 80 percent
predicted Democratic seat gain: 37
predicted Democratic popular vote margin: 8.5
Economist:
probability Democrats take House: 71 percent
predicted Democratic seat gain: 29
predicted Democratic popular vote margin: 8.6
Crosstab/G. Elliot Morris:
probability Democrats take House: 78 percent
predicted Democratic seat gain: 38
predicted Democratic popular vote margin: 9.2
CBS Battleground:
probability Democrats take House: no estimate
predicted Democratic seat gain: 29
predicted Democratic popular vote margin: no prediction
Standard disclaimer: (a) None of this means the Democrats are certain to take the House. They aren't. (b) None of this means the Democrats can relax and not worry about voter mobilization and persuasion. They can't.

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