Sunday, September 23, 2018

House Forecasting Check-In

A little more than six weeks 'til election day. Time for a little check-in on the various House forecasting models (note: this is just the real-time updated models, not the various academic models--see Sabato's Crystal Ball for those).
538:
probability Democrats take House: 80 percent
predicted Democratic seat gain: 37
predicted Democratic popular vote margin: 8.5
Economist:
probability Democrats take House: 71 percent
predicted Democratic seat gain: 29
predicted Democratic popular vote margin: 8.6
Crosstab/G. Elliot Morris:
probability Democrats take House: 78 percent
predicted Democratic seat gain: 38
predicted Democratic popular vote margin: 9.2
CBS Battleground:
probability Democrats take House: no estimate
predicted Democratic seat gain: 29
predicted Democratic popular vote margin: no prediction
Standard disclaimer: (a) None of this means the Democrats are certain to take the House. They aren't. (b) None of this means the Democrats can relax and not worry about voter mobilization and persuasion. They can't.

3 comments:

  1. I am going to say that you did great work and this is an awesome blog. I enjoyed reading your articles. This is truly a great read for me. I have bookmarked it and I am looking forward to reading new articles on the same matter.friv jogos online
    jogos online 2019
    friv jogos 4 school online

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anni Putur, Maddi Tassey, Cam Boyce, Gabby Trongone, and Camille Miller were relentless on defense keeping Nauset to one 2nd half goal. Kasey Molito had another brilliant game with 10 saves on 14 shots. Bonavita was absolutely brilliant on offense as she scored 5 goals and kept the ball away from Nauset for most of second half.
    kizi games 2 unblocked
    free games online 2019
    friv for school 2019

    ReplyDelete
  3. You fill your growing container with soil and moisten lightly. I have used old fish totes. (I used to work in a gourmet market with a fish department I managed, so theses were a dime a dozen and have many uses). Sprinkle your soaked seeds evenly across the moist soil.
    Jogos live
    360 jogos gratis
    friv 4 school math games 2019

    ReplyDelete