Friday, October 22, 2021

The Demographics of Tanking: I Won't Say I Told You So...

But I told you so. As Biden's approval rating has tanked it hasn't equally tanked across all demographic groups. One of the sharpest declines has been among Hispanics, an absolutely vital group for the Democrats in 2022 and 2024 and one among whom they already lost considerable ground in 2020.
538 has very strong data on this, aggregated across all available public surveys:
"Garnering support from independents is important because it helps a president achieve overall popularity, but support from the base is vital too — and it’s another spot where Biden is in trouble. While his job approval rating among Democrats remains very high, it has dipped from 90 percent in the early summer to the low 80s now, with signs of deteriorating support among Black and Hispanic Americans, who are more likely to identify as Democratic than white Americans. As the chart below shows, there has been a drop in support for Biden among all three racial and ethnic groups we measured, but the drop among Hispanics — from the high 60s to slightly below 50 percent — marks Biden’s most precipitous decline.
Recent polling suggests that Hispanic approval of Biden’s handling of the pandemic and the economy has fallen sharply. The latest poll from The Economist/YouGov found just 45 percent of Hispanics approved of Biden’s handling of the pandemic, compared with 65 percent in early June. And Politico/Morning Consult’s new survey found Hispanic approval of Biden’s handling of the economy has dropped to 42 percent, compared with 60 percent back in June. Hispanics are also frustrated with how Biden has dealt with immigration — long one of Biden’s weakest issues in the public’s eyes — and although it isn’t the most important issue for Hispanic voters, it is often a highly salient one. Earlier this month, Quinnipiac University found that only 23 percent of Hispanic Americans approved of Biden’s work on immigration, down from 49 percent in late May. Even if that might be on the low end for Biden, the new Politico/Morning Consult survey also found him performing more poorly on the issue among Hispanic voters, as just 40 percent approved, compared with 51 percent in June.
Biden has lost ground among almost every single demographic group over the past few months, but independents and Hispanics stick out as two key groups where Biden’s standing has especially faltered. For Democrats looking ahead to the 2022 midterms, Biden’s overall approval rating is concerning enough, but if Biden is struggling to win independents and Hispanics, that could snuff out any hope Democrats have of holding either chamber of Congress."
For further food for thought about the Hispanic vote and why Democrats seem to be losing altitude among them, you could consult my two pieces on the Hispanic vote that I wrote for The Liberal Patriot. They are perhaps particularly useful for thinking about the Hispanic working class vote and why that drove poor Democratic performance in 2020 and is likely driving the current approval decline.
May be an image of text that says 'Biden has lost the most ground with Hispanics Biden's approval rating by race during the first nine months of his presidency 00% 90 Black 80 70 Hispanic 60 White 50 og 40 30 Trend February 2021 April June Based on all available crosstab data in public polling ihiyEight August October SOURCE: POLLS'

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