Thursday, October 28, 2021

Ten Things We Now Know About What Went Right (And Wrong) for Democrats in 2020 in Wisconsin and Nevada

My latest for The Liberal Patriot looks at new and very detailed data on Wisconsin and Nevada in 2020 that were just released by Catalist. These are excellent data, far better than anything previously available.

"Wisconsin was the tipping point state for the Democrats in 2020 and it was incredibly close. Trump carried it by .8 percentage points in 2016, while Democrats carried it by only .6 points in 2020. Nevada wasn’t as close but it was still an uncomfortable victory for the Democrats, a mere 2.4 point margin in 2020, no improvement at all on Clinton’s narrow margin in 2016.
It has been difficult until now to find reliable data with which to suss out the various trends and counter-trends that produced these results in these two key states. With the data just released by Catalist, however, we now have data detailed and reliable enough to make some judgments about what drove the Wisconsin and Nevada results. There are important similarities to the national story, as well as some significant differences in these states.
Here, then, as another installment in my popular “Ten Things” series, are ten things we now know about the 2020 election in Wisconsin and Nevada. (Margin shifts are all based on the two party vote).
1. The key shift in Wisconsin in 2020 was the shift of white college-educated voters toward the Democrats. There was an 8 point margin shift toward Biden compared to Clinton in 2016. That shift is clearly the main and most direct reason Biden carried the state....
5. There was a truly astonishing 24 point margin shift toward Trump among Wisconsin’s nonwhite 18-29 year olds. That’s got to be a bit worrying for Democrats....
8. Latino voters, though their turnout and voter share in [Nevada] increased strongly, did not wind up benefiting the Democrats much relative to 2016 since they also exhibited a very large 18 margin point shift toward Trump. This is another piece of evidence that high turnout does not automatically favor the Democrats. Black voters too shifted a substantial 12 points toward Trump...
10. Overall, the Democrats lost ground among the multiracial working class in the state (around 70 percent of the state’s voters) while gaining ground among the state’s college graduates. As in Wisconsin, the nonwhite working class drove the Democrats’ working class losses, shifting 12 points toward Trump."
Read all ten cool new Wisconsin and Nevada facts at The Liberal Patriot! And subscribe--it's free!

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