This is really an excellent overview from Steven Shepard at Politico. Fair and balanced! Here are the proximate reasons why Youngkin could really win this one. Note this particularly:
"It fits with a national trend that suggests that Democrats’ traditional advantages on education have been eroded. In this week’s POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, slightly more voters nationally said they trusted Democrats in Congress to handle education than Republicans, 43 percent to 39 percent. Nine months ago, just as Biden’s presidency was beginning in late January, Democrats’ lead on that question in POLITICO/Morning Consult’s polling was much wider, 51 percent to 29 percent."