Thursday, June 11, 2020

The First Serious Forecast Is In!

The Economist has released their forecasting model of the 2020 election and, at the moment, it gives Biden an 85 percent chance of winning. The model puts MI in the very likely to win (85-99 percent) category for Biden and PA, WI and FL in the likely to win (65-85 percent). AZ, CA, NC and OH are in the uncertain category.
This is a solid model with a well worked-out (and clearly explained) methodology. Need I point out that forecasting models can be wrong? I didn't think so.
But right now, Ridin' with Biden is looking like a pretty good bet.

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