Friday, June 19, 2020

Florida: The Senior Citizen Revolt


Florida, where Biden now has a solid lead (see below) is now the tipping point before the tipping point state, according to 538. That is, Minnesota is now the tipping point state but Florida is right in back of that so to speak, with a slightly bigger Biden lead.
That is amazing. What on earth is going on there? Well, several things are moving against Trump in Florida but the most consequential is what you could call the senior citizen revolt.
In 2016, Trump's victory was built on a wide 20 lead among Florida's 65 and over population, according to States of Change data. This year there's a huge shift against him among this population--22 margin points--so that Biden actually leads Trump among these voters by 2 points (in the Democracy Fund + UCLA survey, 4000 Florida cases since April 1).
Unless Trump can rebuild his Florida lead among these voters he will have a hard time winning the state. Not to mention the Presidency.

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