Sunday, June 14, 2020

Is Pennsylvania Really Closer Than Michigan and Wisconsin?

There's only been spotty recent polling in PA lately and of dubious quality so there are reasons to be skeptical of current polling averages which show PA closer than MI and WI. And the Nationscape data do not suggest PA is particularly close at this point. These data since April 1 have Biden up a healthy 10 points over Trump in PA, more than Biden was up earlier in the year. Biden's lead reflects strong improvements relative to Clinton among both college and noncollege whites combined with traditional Democratic domination of the nonwhite vote.

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