Friday, June 12, 2020

Another Forecast!

Jack Kersting's forecast model on the excellent site Decision Desk HQ gives Biden a somewhat lower chance of winning the election (77 percent) than the Economist model's 85 percent. It's interesting to compare this model's estimates of various swing state win probabilities with the Economist model:
AZ Economist 58 percent change Biden win vs. Kersting 65 percent
FL 71 percent vs. 68 percent
GA 45 percent vs. 40 percent
IA 34 percent vs. 37 percent
MI 85 percent vs. 87 percent
MN 89 percent vs. 88 percent
NV 85 percent vs. 85 percent
NH 81 percent vs. 83 percent
NC 60 percent vs. 65 percent
OH 47 percent vs. 37 percent
PA 77 percent vs. 78 percent
TX 22 percent vs. 22 percent
WI 80 percent vs. 72 percent
Pretty similar, though interesting Economist is more optimistic on GA and OH but less on AZ and NC.

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