Monday, June 22, 2020

The Bluing of the Hawkeye State

It could happen. Trip Gabriel has a useful report in the Times on political trends there. He notes:
"In the Des Moines Register poll, Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden 44 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, the latest in a wave of national and state polls showing the president’s prospects for re-election at their most precarious all year....
Amid a pandemic that the president seeks to minimize, and widespread anti-police protests after the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Mr. Trump’s approval has slipped five points in Iowa since March, to 45 percent. Only 37 percent approve of the way he has handled the protests. The president retains strong support from evangelical voters and white men. But white working-class women preferred Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump in the Register poll, 53 percent to 35 percent....
Ms. [Theresa] Greenfield, who until recently was president of a commercial real estate company, led Ms. [Joni] Ernst by three points in the Register poll, 46 percent to 43 percent. It is the first time Ms. Ernst, a former state senator and National Guard commander in Iraq, has trailed in a general election survey by the pollster J. Ann Selzer, the most respected in Iowa, since 2014."
The Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape survey also finds small, similarly-sized lead for Biden in Iowa. The survey also shows a big split between white noncollege men and women though it does not find Biden actually head of Trump among white noncollege women.
Iowa seemed out of reach for Democrats not too long ago. Now, the presidential race appears to be tightening, and Senator Ernst, a Republican, is facing a strong challenge from a political newcomer.

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