Wednesday, June 3, 2020

Biden Poll-mentum

Very good news for Biden today on the poll front.
National polls show a widening margin for Biden. The most gaudy of these is a +11 margin recorded for Biden in the high quality (A+ 538 rating) Monmouth poll.
Then, state polls from high quality pollsters look very good:
Wisconsin (Fox, A- rating) +9 Biden
Arizona (Fox) +4 Biden
Ohio (Fox) +2 Biden
Texas (!) Quinnipiac, B+rating) Trump +1
In fairness, lefty pollster Change Research (C- rating) has, oddly, much more pessimistic results in battleground polls they are doing with CNBC. Go figure.
Looking across the high quality polls, what stands out a first glance is that Biden is running somewhat better among white noncollege voters than Clinton, and way better among white college voters. That's true both nationally and in the states. How can Trump win in this landscape? He can't. If Democrats can hold these patterns, he's sunk.
Of course, there's a long way to election day and the situation is, to say the least, a bit volatile. Stay tuned.
Majorities of Wisconsin voters rate the economy negatively and are concerned about coronavirus.

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