Thursday, July 15, 2021

The Group That Really Delivered the 2020 Election to Joe Biden

My latest at The Liberal Patriot! I explore "Ten Things We Now Know About White College Voters in the 2020 Election", another installment of my epic Ten Things series.
"Victory has a thousand fathers as they say and, in the wake of Biden’s victory in the 2020 election, advocates of various stripes have tried to make the case that “their” group was the one really responsible. This is typically done by taking a high margin Democratic group out of the electorate and calculating that Biden couldn’t have won without them or by comparing Biden’s thin vote margins in some states to a particular group’s marginal contributions and declaring them decisive. But the real question is how groups’ preferences changed between 2016 and 2020 and which group’s change made the largest contribution to making up the Democrats’ deficits from the previous election as well as cancelling out gains Trump made in the current election. By these criteria, the clear choice is white college-educated voters. They made the largest and most important contribution to Biden’s victory.
In light of this, I present here ten things we now know about this decisive group in 2020 election. As in previous installments of this series, I rely primarily on the the Catalist data, still the best source for demographics of the 2020 vote and trend compared to previous elections (all figures cited here based on the two-party vote).
1. White college voters moved over 8 margin points toward Biden in 2020, greater than Biden’s gains among white noncollege voters (3 points) and starkly different from nonwhite voters who actually moved toward Trump."
Read the other 9 things we now know at The Liberal Patriot and amaze your friends!
Ten Things We Now Know About White College Voters in the 2020 Election
Ten Things We Now Know About White College Voters in the 2020 Election
The Group That Delivered Biden’s Victory

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