Thursday, May 21, 2020

The Rise of the "No Malarkey" Trump-Biden Voters

Could vote-switching help Biden in the 2020 election? You bet! John Halpin and I detail how many of these voters there are and describe their economically progressive but somewhat socially conservative views in our new Monkey Cage piece on the Post website.
"After the 2016 election, analysts spilled tubs of ink arguing that “Obama-Trump” voters helped swing the election. Analysis by John Sides for the Voter Study Group (which both of us have worked with) found that 9 percent of Barack Obama voters from 2012 switched to Donald Trump in 2016, for about 6 million voters overall. Disproportionately white, non-college-educated and concentrated in electorally vital states from Florida to the Great Lakes, these Democratic defectors shifted enough votes to help Trump win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which gave him an electoral college win despite losing the national popular vote.
Will party switching influence the 2020 presidential election? Our analysis suggests that, yes, a significant number of Trump’s 2016 voters are ready to vote for the presumptive Democratic Party nominee, Joe Biden.
We examined vote switching in the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape surveys since the start of the year, examining the answers of more than 85,000 nationally representative registered voters....Based on these data, we find that 9 percent of Trump 2016 voters are currently planning to vote for the former vice president. This group of Trump-Biden voters is twice as large as the percentage of Hillary Clinton voters from 2016 who this year say they plan to vote for Trump. That would give Biden a net advantage that could help decide the 2020 race."
Nine percent of Trump's 2016 voters say they're planning to vote for Biden, our data suggest.

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