Monday, May 11, 2020

How Is Biden Running in the Battleground States?

As all sentient humans know, simply winning the popular vote will not be enough for Biden since it is quite possible to do that and still lose the electoral college vote.
So, even though Biden has a solid lead nationally, how is he doing in the battleground states that will likely decide the election? Polls specifically targeted at battleground states mostly say he is doing quite well, though there is some disagreement between the polls.
Here are some recent ones:
1. Democracy Corps/Greenberg Research
Biden + 5 across 16 states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
Wisconsin (Clinton performance in same states in 2016: -1)
2. Democracy for All 2021/Hart Research
Biden +9 across 6 states: AZ, CO, IA, ME, MT, NC (Clinton performance in same states in 2016 -2 (self-reported))
3. :Avalanche Strategies
Biden +6 across 7 states (AZ, FL, Mi, NV, NC, PA, WI)
4. CNBC/Change Research
Biden -2 across 6 states (AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, WI)
Somewhat related, here is some recent commentary from G. Elliott Morris, the Economist's US political data guy:
"Mentioned this the other day, but national and state polls disagree in a big way right now about the state of the 2020 race. National surveys put the contest around Biden +6 nationally, but state-level polls suggest he's up by 8 or so."....(Query from reader: "Is it possible that Biden is basically just replicating Clinton ‘16 in some big blue states (CA? NY? MA?) but running ahead of her elsewhere?"....(Morris answer: "Yep, this is what the polls are suggesting")

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