Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Is Iowa in Play?

An unequivocal maybe! After all, Trump won Iowa by over 9 points in 2016, a huge swing from Obama’s 6-point victory in the state in 2012.
General election polling has been very think in Iowa, but Public Policy Polling--a decently good pollster--has just released a survey testing the Biden-Trump matchup and shockingly Biden is only behind by 2 points (46-48). The internals have Biden behind of 5 points among white voters, a considerable improvement over Clinton's 13 point deficit in 2016 (States of Change data).
In addition, Republican incumbent Senator Joni Ernst is only ahead of Democrat Theresa Greenfield by one point (43-42)!
Regardless of whether Biden actually wins Iowa or not, if he keeps it this close through the election, that's very bad news for Trump.

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