Tuesday, May 5, 2020

North Carolina Update

Since the SurveyUSA poll that had Biden up 5, there's been two more NC polls; Meredith College had Biden up 7 and the newest one, from Civiqs/Daily Kos, has Biden up by 3. Of course, none of this means Biden will necessarily win NC, but it's an impressive run of good results.
The poll also has Cunningham beating Tillis by 9 for the Senate and Cooper leading by 9 to be re-elected governor.
I was very intrigued by some of the tabs for the new poll/ Like the earlier SurveyUSA, the poll has Biden only losing whites by 20 points in the state compared to Clinton's 30 point loss in 2016. This includes a big pro-Democratic swing to Biden by white noncollege voters relative to Clinton's performance. And Biden's margin among black voters in this poll is essentially identical to Clinton's margin in 2016.
That's a pretty good recipe if they can cook it up on election day!
According to Civiqs’ first poll of North Carolina this cycle, big things are afoot in North Carolina, with Democrats poised for wins in the presidential, Senate, and governor contests, and with voters soured on both of their existing Republican...

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