Friday, May 1, 2020

Texas? Georgia?

Well, I wouldn't get too frisky here. But there are two new polls out of TX and GA; the former shows Biden ahead of Trump by 1, while the latter has Biden only behind Trump by a point. No internals on the GA poll, so not much to comment on there, other than I'd have to see a lot more similar polling before I'd see GA as truly being on the edge between Trump and Biden. The TX poll has some internals available and encouragingly they show Biden with a much larger margin among Hispanics than Hillary had in the state in 2016 (47 vs. 26 points). However, Biden's deficit among whites is basically the same as Clinton's, about 40 points. I find it hard to believe that Biden can take the state or even make it very close without compressing that deficit.
That said, it's certainly worth keeping an eye on both these states as we move forward.
A tight race is shaping up in Texas between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Trump, according to a new poll.

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