Thursday, May 21, 2020

Biden Lead Nuggets

Two new high quality polls have Biden far ahead--Quinnipiac by 11 and Fox News by 8. I doubt if Biden is really ahead by 11 but the case for 8 made by Enten and others--based on the totality of polling including state results--seems reasonable.
A few things that caught my eye:
1. in the Fox poll, 2016 Trump voters give Biden 8 percent support while 2016 Clinton voters give Trump only 2 percent. This is is pretty similar to results from my Nationscape analysis, which some have argued must be an outlier. Maybe not.
2. Both the Q poll and the Fox poll give Trump only paltry leads among white voters, 4 points in the former and 7 points in the latter. If that's really all the lead Trump is running among white voters, he is indeed in very bad trouble.
3. I don't think I've ever see this before and I guess I don't really believe it, but it is amazing that a serious poll would show this. In the Q-poll (see below), Biden breaks 50 percent across four standard age groups (18-34, 35-49, 50-64 and 65+) and has a solid lead in each of them. Wow. With that kind of support, a bit of underperformance among young voters isn't really going to matter. Plus, I still think Biden may wind up doing about as well as Hillary anyway.

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