Wednesday, February 3, 2021

The Votes That Sunk Trump

The votes that sunk Trump may surprise you. The data and conclusions I cite here are from an autopsy of Trump's campaign from his pollsters, Fabrizio, Lee and Associates. As far as I can figure out, they averaged AP/NORC VoteCast and the regular exits from 2020 and compared that with the exits from 2016 (VoteCast didn't exist in 2016). Perhaps there was some other secret sauce involved but they are not forthcoming about their methodology.

Anyway, here are their key conclusions. Interesting. Perhaps there's hope for white men after all! The two graphics I show below are from the report. Note that "flipped" states in their analysis are AZ, GA, MI, PA and WI while "held" states are FL, IA, NC, OH and TX.

"Despite turnout for both state groups being MORE GOP in 2020 than 2016, POTUS lost ground in both groups largely due to a massive swing against POTUS among Indies in both state groups and more GOP ‘leakage’ in “Flipped” states.
• Racially, POTUS suffered his greatest erosion with White voters, particularly White Men in both state groups. However, he made double digit gains with Hispanics in both groups, while his performance among Blacks was virtually the same as 2016.
• POTUS lost ground with almost every age group in both state groupings, but he lost the most with voters 18-29 and 65+ in “Flipped” states. Worse was the double-digit erosion he suffered with White College educated voters across the board.
• Voters who did not vote in ’16 but voted in ’20 accounted for roughly 1-in-6 voters and they broke markedly for Biden, especially in the “Flipped” states. 1-in-10 voters say they decided their vote in the final month of the campaign, and contrary to conventional wisdom, they broke in Biden’s favor in both state groups."

Also worth noting here is Trump's vote losses among seniors and white noncollege voters in the flipped states.

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