A lot rides on this one! I survey the terrain in my new piece on The Liberal Patriot and sketch the challenges Democrats will have holding the Biden coalition together in the state in 2022.
"In Pennsylvania, the Senate seat of retiring incumbent Pat Toomey is up for grabs in 2022. Capturing this seat is key to Democrats’ hopes for expanding their extremely tight margin in the Senate or at least to retain the narrow control they have.
Right now, the seat is rated a pure toss-up by election sites like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. It could be another squeaker statewide election, just like it was for Biden in 2020 when he carried the state by a mere 1.2 percentage points. Can the Democrats’ replicate and ideally expand Biden’s coalition in 2022 so that they can flip that Senate seat?
To assess the chances of that, it is first necessary to understand how Biden did manage to carry the state in 2020, reversing Trump’s 2016 victory. Here are the overall contours of Biden’s victory in the state."
Please click through to The Liberal Patriot to read my full analysis. And subscribe--it's free!