Monday, February 1, 2021

Rural Areas in Northern Swing States: The Dog That Didn't Bark

I recommend this detailed new 538 piece breaking down county results for trend, 2012-2020. It's one of the better analyses along these lines I've seen with some helpful graphics (no maps with zillions of wavy lines!). There's a lot to ponder here, though I do wish they'd broken down the suburbs/exurbs a bit more by underlying demographics. Anyway, among other things, the rural results are worth checking out, confirming that a key piece of Biden's victory was "the dog that didn't bark"; the failure of :Trump to run up the score in rural counties in northern swing states.
"[W]hile Trump continued to improve his vote share in rural counties across the country, at least some rural counties in the Frost Belt and Sun Belt stepped at least a tad toward Biden (particularly in the former).
Trump still won most rural parts of the Frost Belt, and often by big margins, but at the same time, he wasn’t able to build up a big enough advantage in them to offset the gains Biden made in some urban, suburban and exurban parts of these states."
I'll have more to say about these trends shortly.
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