My latest at The Liberal Patriot:
"Last week, Republicans took the mayoralty in McAllen, Texas. This is an 85 percent Hispanic city which Hillary Clinton carried by 40 points in 2016; that margin was cut in half by Trump in 2020 and now we have an outright GOP win in the city.
What’s going on? Wasn’t demographic change supposed to help the Democrats? Was that idea wrong?
Not exactly. The important thing is to think about demographic change in all its aspects, with all its moving parts, instead of relying on a one-size-fits-all interpretation. Then it is much easier to see how demographic change can help, hurt or even have no effect on electoral outcomes. The analysis below, reprinted from the Persuasion site with permission, provides a logical way of thinking about these possibilities so that results like McAllen (or, more broadly, Hispanic voting in the 2020 election) are less difficult to understand and process."