Thursday, August 15, 2019

Warren Munching Happily on Sanders' Support

This trend has been apparent for awhile but the new Fox News poll throws this into high relief. (To repeat from an earlier post: the Fox poll is a very good poll, rated "A" by 538). As shown in the graphic below, since March Biden is flatlined at 31 percent, while Warren is up 16 points to 20 percent and Sanders is down 13 points to 10 percent. This is consistent with the RCP running poll average.
Warren still struggles among black voters, receiving just 8 percent support to 37 percent for Biden. She also does relatively poorly among white noncollege voters, with 15 percent support to 34 percent for Biden. However, she edges Biden 33-29 among white college voters.
The poll also includes trial heats testing the four top-polling potential Democratic nominees against Trump. They all beat him by margins ranging from 6-12 points. The strongest candidate, as has been typical for months, is Biden at 50-38 against Trump.
The internals of the trial heats are interesting because they provide indications of what a winning Democratic coalition might look like. Looking at the Biden-Trump matchup, the most favorable for Democrats at this time, the key here is not the 11 point advantage among white college voters, which we might expect, but rather the unusually modest deficit among white noncollege voters--a mere 12 points. For Democrats these days, that would be a standout performance among this demographic.
Further, Biden in this trial heat only runs 4 points (!) behind Trump among white noncollege women. This group, as numerous recent analyses have suggested, is the soft underbelly of Trump's coalition. This poll reminds us of the rich dividends Democrats could reap by capitalizing on that vulnerability.
There are also a number of interesting questions on mass shootings and gun safety that are well worth looking at.

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