Wednesday, August 7, 2019

State of the Democratic Nomination Race

The latest Quinnipiac poll is out, giving Biden a solid lead at 32 percent support, compared with 21 percent for Warren, 14 percent for Sanders and 7 percent for Harris. Compared to the RCP rolling average these figures are all quite close, except for Warren who is 5 points higher in the Q-poll.
But what's really interesting here is the internals of the poll and some of the other questions. As confirmed by other polls, Biden is still smoking the other candidates with 47 percent support, far outdistancing Sanders at 16 percent. All the other candidates have only single digit black support, Warren has just 8 percent support--far below her general support--and Harris has only 1 percent (!)
Biden's support is stronger among white noncollege (38 percent) than white college (25 percent). Warren's support , on the other hand, is a bit higher among white college (26 percent) than noncollege (26 percent). Interestingly, in Biden's weakest age group--18-34--Sanders and Warren are running about the same (24 and 25 percent, respectively).
Again, Biden gets the overwhelming nod as the candidate most likely to beat Trump. It's not even close: 49 percent for Biden, with 12 percent for Sanders, followed by Warren at 9 percent and Harris at 6 percent.
But the results of the Q-poll were quite different when the question was shifted to which candidate has the best policy ideas. Here Warren is the clear leader, with 32 percent support, compared to 17 percent for Biden and 16 percent for Sanders. Intriguingly, Warren even gets the nod here among black voters, who so heavily support Biden; 29 percent think she has the best policy ideas, compared to 19 percent for Biden.
She also carries both white college and noncollege voters and all age groups on this measure. Impressive.


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