This is a terrific article by Geoffrey Kabaservice on the Niskanen Center site. Kabaservice, part of that vanishing breed of GOP moderates, is the author of an outstanding study of Republican party evolution, Rule and Ruin: The Downfall of Moderation and the Destruction of the Republican Party, From Eisenhower to the Tea Party.
In this article, he intersperses his own thoughts with a thorough review of the recent States of Change report on the evolution of party coalition, as well as the two papers that accompanied the report. In case you can't read the report and papers, at least read his summary and analysis. Really nice job.
"In 2002, political demographer Ruy Teixeira co-authored the influential bestseller The Emerging Democratic Majority, which argued that a new Democratic voter base of minorities, women, and professionals was taking shape that would provide the basis for Democratic majorities for years to come. But Teixeira has always been careful to emphasize that he wasn’t predicting an irresistible demographic wave that would sweep Republicans into a permanent minority — particularly since the diversification of the electorate has lagged that of the population as a whole.
Teixeira, now with the Center for American Progress, is co-author (along with Rob Griffin and William Frey) of the States of Change: Demographics and Democracy series, which recently released its fifth annual report. The project — a collaboration of the Bipartisan Policy Center, the Brookings Institution, the Center for American Progress, and Democracy Fund — aims to examine what the changing demography of the nation will mean for American politics. The focus of this year’s report is on how demographic change is transforming the makeup of both the Republican and Democratic parties.
The report refrains from making predictions about which party is likely to benefit from the shifts that it describes. Two papers that accompany the report, however, do speculate on whether these changes will prove baneful or beneficial for the long-term political health of the Republican Party."