Sunday, August 4, 2019

The Coming Democratic Majority

The excellent Lane Kenworthy makes this case as well--better!--than I ever have in a section of an essay he put up on his website on "Voters, groups, parties, and elections" The whole essay is great, extremely crisp and extremely fair to the various literatures he cites. So you should really read the whole thing, but here is a taste from his section on "The coming Democratic majority".
"In the aftermath of the 2016 election, with Republicans holding the presidency and a majority in both houses of congress, it was easy to dismiss the notion of a coming Democratic majority. But if anything, the case for this projection is stronger now than when Judis and Teixeira first offered it.
Recent Republican parity (and occasional majority status) in national elections is largely a function of the country’s antiquated electoral rules. The Democratic presidential candidate has gotten a majority of the popular vote in six of the past seven elections, but twice the electoral college has handed the presidency to the Republican instead. Democrats frequently get more votes than Republicans in Senate elections, but Republicans remain competitive because they have a hold on a number of small conservative states, each of which gets the same number of senate seats as large progressive states such as California and New York.
As a country gets richer, its citizens tend to want more insurance against loss, greater fairness and opportunity for the less-advantaged, and more individual freedom. The first of these leads to support for more generous and expansive government social programs. The second and third produce growing progressivism on social and cultural issues. Each of these shifts favors the Democratic Party....
[M]ost Americans, even those who dislike the idea of big government or who call themselves “conservative,” favor much of what government actually does. And quite a few would prefer that government do more.
What about social and cultural issues?...[L]ow-income Republicans differ from high-income Republicans in their degree of economic progressivism, with quite a few low-income Republicans just as progressive as Democrats. For Republicans, cultural conservatism has become just as important as limited government, if not more so.
But cultural conservatism is on the decline. This is what we would expect, given the shift toward postmaterialist value orientations. And it is what we observe in the public opinion survey data. Every noteworthy cultural shift that has occurred over the past half century — on gender roles, families, racial and ethnic inclusion, religion, and more — has been away from traditionalism and in the direction of greater fairness and individual liberty.....
The clearest signal that the Republican Party faces diminishing electoral support comes from the views and party preferences of younger Americans. Recall that value orientations and party preferences tend to be formed around age 20 and stick throughout the life course. “Millennials” and members of “generation Z” tend to be considerably more progressive on social and cultural issues than preceding generations. And younger cohorts are more likely than their predecessors to identify as Democrats and much more likely to vote for Democrats."
Kenworthy then goes on to discuss the issue of racial anxiety--ts origins and whether it has enough staying power to keep Republicans from moving to the center indefinitely. Again, read the whole thing if you have time.
LANEKENWORTHY.NET
Lane Kenworthy, The Good Society July 2019 In a representative democracy, a key goal is to ensure that government is “for the people” — that it does what citizens want.1 What are …

3 comments:

  1. ARE YOU IN NEED TO HIRE A PROFESSIONAL HACKER,?

    Solving a problem for which you know there’s an answer is like climbing a mountain with a guide, along a trail someone else has laid. The globalkos are here to meet your needs. Whichever hacking services needed or required by our (clients) are fully met within a short period of time.
    The new development on the Globalkos platform is to assign to you the right HACKER to deal with, depending on the kind of problem you are willing to get fixed. 
    Here, you would be refer to a legit professional hacker known for massive skills and security abilities.
    Skilled and professionally trained to render service like.
    ●Mobile Phone hack (Whatsapp, Facebook, Instagram, snapchat etc)
    Have you been suspecting your spouse whether he/she is cheating on you? If yes, the globalkos are willing to help you penetrate the target's cell phone having full remote access and extracting information you need as an evidence against the target. Other core services includes,
    ●Credit card top up,
    ●Credit card dept clearing.
    ●database hack,
    ●money transfer,
    ●Verified Paypal Accounts hack,
    ●email hack,
    ●Grades upgrade: (Upgrading of university scores).
    ●Android & iPhone Hack
    ●BinaryOption funds recovery.
    Our strength is based on our ability to bring together active cyber security professionals who individually has acquired enormous exposure in the world of HACKING
    Our primary reason for this main development is to ensure that those in need of help don’t get ripped off by forgeries.
    Just in case you might be wondering who we are.
    The globalkos are group of skilled professional hackers driven by passion to make the internet a safer place and rendering proficient services to those having cyber problems.
    Globalkos has grown and expanded since it formation over the years due to the experience and professionalism of our management and technical staff.
    As part of our corporate goals, providing value added services to meet our client needs and requirements has been our sustaining impetus.
    For more enquiries and help,
    Visit: theglobalkos (at)gmail . Com
    Globalkos©️LLC 2030

    ReplyDelete
  2. Welcome. BE NOT TROUBLED anymore. you’re at the right place. Nothing like having trustworthy hackers. have you lost money before or bitcoins and are looking for a hacker to get your money back? You should contact us right away. It's very affordable and we give guarantees to our clients. Our hacking services are as follows:Email:Creditcards.atm@gmail.com 
    -hack into any kind of phone
    _Increase Credit Scores
    _western union, bitcoin and money gram hacking
    _criminal records deletion_BLANK ATM/CREDIT CARDS
    _Hacking of phones(that of your spouse, boss, friends, and see whatever is being discussed behind your back)
    _Security system hacking...and so much more. Contact THEM now and get whatever you want at
    Email:Creditcards.atm@gmail.com 

      Whats app:+1(305) 330-3282  

    WHY WOULD YOU NEED TO HIRE A HACKER??:
    There are so many Reasons why people need to hire a hacker, It might be to Hack a Websites to deface information, retrieve information, edit information or give you admin access.
    • Some people might need us To Hack Their Target Smartphone so that they could get access to all activities on the phone like , text messages , call logs , Social media Apps and other information
    • Some might need to Hack a Facebook , gmail, Instagram , twitter and other social media Accounts,
    • Also Some Individuals might want to Track someone else's Location probably for investigation cases
    • Some might need Us to Hack into Court's Database to Clear criminal records.
    • However, Some People Might Have Lost So Much Funds With BINARY OPTIONS BROKERS or BTC MINING and wish to Recover Their Funds
    • All these Are what we can get Done Asap With The Help Of Our Root Hack Tools, Special Hack Tools and Our Technical Hacking Strategies Which Surpasses All Other Hackers.

    ★ OUR SPECIAL SERVICES WE OFFER ARE:
    * RECOVERY OF LOST FUNDS ON BINARY OPTIONS
    * Credit Cards Loading ( USA Only )
    * BANK Account Loading (USA Banks Only)

    ★ You can also contact us for other Cyber Attacks And Hijackings, we do All ★

    ★ CONTACTS:
    * For Binary Options Recovery,feel free to contact (Creditcards.atm@gmail.com)for a wonderful job well done,stay safe.

    Why waste your time waiting for a monthly salary. When you can make up to $3,000 in 5-7days from home,                     
    Invest $300 and earn $3,000
    Invest $500 and earn $5,000
    Invest $600 and earn $6,000
    Invest $700 and earn $7,000
    Invest $800 and earn $8,000
    Invest $900 and earn $9,000
    Invest $1000 and earn $10,000

    IT HAS BEEN TESTED AND TRUSTED  

    ReplyDelete