Tuesday, July 3, 2018

Election Check-In: The Polls Have Been Pretty Good Lately

The latest 538 polling average has the Democrats up by about 8 in the generic Congressional ballot. That continues a warming trend for the Dems we've seen for awhile.
What are the demographics of this trend? There are a lot of moving parts here but one possibility is that Trump's latest hardline shenanigans are not only alienating white college grads, especially women, but are not paying off much among working class whites, again, particularly women.
In the latest Quinnipiac poll, which has a slightly higher (9 point) lead for the Democrats, they lead by 13 points among white college grads, which is quite good. But, arguably, even more important, they are losing by only 14 points among white noncollege voters. That might not sound great but trust me it is.
As a result, in this poll.Democrats are actually splitting the vote evenly (46-46) among white voters. That is very good indeed. If the Democrats even come close to that in November it will be a very good election--especially if they can combine that with solid mobilization of the minority vote.

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