David Wasserman of Cook Political Report has released his latest summary of the House situation. I'd trust his view over Cillizza's since Wasserman produces analysis while Cillizza consumes analysis and produces conventional wisdom.
"With 102 days to go, Democrats remain substantial favorites for House control. A big reason: Republicans are defending 42 open or vacant seats, a record since at least 1930. The retirements of Speaker Paul Ryan (WI-01), as well as powerful committee chairs like Reps. Ed Royce (CA-39) and Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ-11) and popular moderates like Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27) and Frank LoBiondo (NJ-02), have given Democrats stellar pickup opportunities."
"Substantial favorites"? Has a nice ring to it.