If you look at the survey data, it seems like the largest swing toward Biden relative to 2016 was among white noncollege voters, not white college voters. And yet most of the geographical analysis seems to indicate that swings toward Biden were largest in suburban areas. How can this be?
Simple. Contrary to the conventional image, suburbs are not wall to wall educated white professionals. In most suburban areas, the white college population is far outnumbered by the white working class population. As analysis from Bill Frey shows, this is particularly true in Rustbelt states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where they are actually the majority of the population in large suburbs. And in the suburbs of most small metropolitan areas, they are even more dominant.
These are important facts to remember when you hear political analysts talking about "the suburbs" and their role in the 2020 election.